Climate Change

Conservation Issue

Numerous mounding corals on a reef. About half of the corals are white, while the others are brown.
Bleached brain and star corals at Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary. Photo: G.P. Schmahl/NOAA

The ecosystems of Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) face significant threats from the effects of climate change, including rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and increasing storm intensity. These factors threaten coral reef health by causing bleaching events and hindering reef growth. Projections for the next 50 years indicate that urgent action is needed to mitigate climate impacts and safeguard the sanctuary's biodiversity and ecological resistance and resilience.

Description

Climate change poses significant threats to sanctuary ecosystems. Coral bleaching events, driven by elevated sea temperatures, are becoming more frequent and severe, stressing coral reefs and disrupting the delicate balance of the marine ecosystem. Additionally, ocean acidification, a consequence of increased carbon dioxide absorption by seawater, poses challenges for calcifying organisms such as corals and coralline algae. As seawater becomes more acidified, these organisms struggle to build their calcium carbonate skeletons, leading to reduced growth rates and weakened structures. Furthermore, the sanctuary is vulnerable to the impacts of more intense and frequent storms, which can cause physical damage to reefs and introduce sediment and nutrient runoff into the marine environment, fueling algal overgrowth and disrupting the ecosystem's balance.

These climate stressors, compounded by other anthropogenic pressures such as land-based pollution, invasive species, and human activities like fishing and offshore development, necessitate management responses. Research on the specific impacts of climate change on sanctuary resources can facilitate adaptive management strategies essential for fostering long-term sustainability amid shifting environmental conditions.

Data and Analysis Needs

  1. Interactions among climate stressors, including the most harmful combinations or synergistic effects and their impacts on ecosystem dynamics, and changes in species composition and habitat structure
  2. Integration of climate data with ecological models to predict future changes in sanctuary biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under different climate scenarios
  3. Species and genotypes/populations that are most susceptible and resistant or resilient to climate stressors
  4. Traits that promote resistance and/or resilience, such as temperature tolerance, adaptive behaviors, or symbiotic relationships
  5. The effects of climate stressors on various species across different depths/habitats within the sanctuary
  6. Additional monitoring of stations in upper mesophotic habitats (40–50 m)
  7. The effects of warming on coral reproduction and recruitment processes
  8. Changes in symbiont communities associated with warming events and their implications for coral health and resilience
  9. The direct and indirect effects of warming on coral reefs and fish populations, including impacts on growth rates, reproductive success, and habitat availability
  10. Reproductive and recruitment success of corals and other key reef organisms under current and projected climate scenarios, considering factors such as temperature-induced spawning events and larval settlement patterns
  11. Calcification thresholds of key reef-building organisms in response to changing environmental conditions, including variations in temperature, pH, and aragonite saturation state
  12. The extent of bioerosion and its implications for the structural integrity of coral reef frameworks within FGBNMS, particularly in relation to increased ocean acidification and storm activity
  13. Storm frequency and intensity tracking and forecasting to evaluate and predict potential impacts on sanctuary resources and enhance monitoring efforts to identify oceanographic variables that may cause acute impacts on sanctuary ecosystems
  14. Use of paleoclimate data to inform restoration and management strategies within the sanctuary and historical climate records to understand past environmental conditions and ecosystem dynamics
  15. Quantification and assessment of the amount of carbon sequestered in FGBNMS habitats, and the role of FGBNMS as a carbon sink for climate mitigation
  16. Molecular (e.g., host and symbiont gene expression) and microbial time series of key reef-building invertebrates during ambient and heat stress conditions

Potential Products

  • Adaptive management strategies based on climate projections to mitigate the impacts of warming and enhance the resistance and resilience of sanctuary ecosystems
  • A genetic banking system to preserve genetic diversity and promote resilience in key species
  • Advanced data integration and modeling tools to enhance understanding and prediction of climate impacts on sanctuary ecosystems
  • Integration and comparison of climate data from Florida/Caribbean regions and FGBNMS to enhance regional climate monitoring and response efforts
  • Accessible climate data and information for facilitating urgent response actions during climate-related events
  • Blue carbon assessment for FGBNMS to help guide climate management

Supplementary Information

For more information about this assessment, contact flowergarden@noaa.gov.